Once expected to build on the triumph of its 2019 predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux has now earned itself a place as one the most publicized box office failures of the year.
After two weeks in theaters, the sequel has grossed just $51.5 million domestically and $165 million worldwide. In stark contrast, the original Joker made $96.2 million domestically and $248.4 million globally within its first three days. Analysts now predict that Folie à Deux will cap out at around $65 million domestically and $210-$215 million globally by the end of its run.
Financial Troubles for “Joker” Sequel
This is a major problem for the film, which had a production cost of $200 million, with another $100 million allocated for marketing and distribution. Given these numbers, the film needs at least $450 million in box office revenue to break even. Currently, Warner Bros. projects the breakeven point at $375 million. However, with such dismal numbers, it’s expected that Folie à Deux will lose between $150 million and $200 million, according to insiders and industry experts. One source even speculates the losses could exceed $200 million.
Despite these dire projections, Warner Bros. disputes some more extreme loss estimates, maintaining that the film will continue to generate revenue through home entertainment and ancillary markets.
Failed to Capture “Joker” Magic
Joker: Folie à Deux represents a stark decline from the original Joker, which grossed $335 million in North America and $1.078 billion globally, becoming the highest-grossing R-rated film ever. The first film was lauded for its dark, gritty portrayal of the infamous Batman villain and garnered two Academy Awards. In contrast, critics and audiences received Folie à Deux poorly, earning a dismal 33% on Rotten Tomatoes and a rare “D” rating from CinemaScore.
The sequel’s shift in tone—transforming into a musical fantasy—alienated the original fan base, with box office analysts blaming this creative pivot for the massive sales drop. Unlike the original, which was a gritty drama inspired by Martin Scorsese’s Taxi Driver and The King of Comedy, Folie à Deux is peppered with song and dance numbers, including covers of That’s Life, Get Happy, and For Once in My Life. This creative gamble didn’t resonate with audiences, leading to its poor performance.
Ballooning Costs and Star Salaries
The film’s hefty budget also contributed to its failure to turn a profit. Both director Todd Phillips and star Joaquin Phoenix (returning as Arthur Fleck) were paid $20 million upfront. At the same time, Lady Gaga, joining the cast as Harleen Quinzel (a.k.a. Harley Quinn), took home $12 million. This star-studded casting and high production costs ballooned the budget to a level difficult to recover, especially given the film’s underperformance.
Analyst David A. Gross from Franchise Entertainment Research commented, “After the first film’s massive success, a sequel seemed inevitable. But making a second installment that could keep audiences equally engaged was always going to be a significant challenge.”
A Sign of Superhero Fatigue?
Released in a drastically different cinematic landscape, Joker: Folie à Deux joins a growing list of superhero movies that have underperformed post-pandemic, including Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and The Marvels. These films, despite being sequels to billion-dollar blockbusters, failed to resonate with audiences, signaling a potential decline in the once seemingly unstoppable superhero genre.
A rival studio executive noted, “Superheroes used to guarantee strong opening weekends, but there’s no floor anymore. Audiences have grown tired of films that are just average.”
The original Joker hit theaters at a time when superhero films were booming, and its dark, unconventional tone was a breath of fresh air. With superhero fatigue setting in, films like Folie à Deux are struggling to capture the same level of attention and box office success.
Hope for Recovery in Home Entertainment
Despite its disastrous theatrical performance, Warner Bros. hopes to recoup some of the losses through home entertainment sales and streaming, with Folie à Deux set to land on digital platforms on October 29. However, whether this will offset the substantial losses incurred during its theatrical run remains to be seen.
Ultimately, Joker: Folie à Deux reminds us that even established franchises can falter when creative risks fail to connect with audiences. While the original Joker shattered box office expectations, its sequel has stumbled, leaving Warner Bros. with significant financial losses and a tarnished reputation.