Google has a history of releasing new Android versions every year, typically during Q3 or Q4. However, there are strong indications that Android 16 may arrive earlier, possibly in Q2 of 2025. This would mark a significant shift in Google’s Android release cycle, which has traditionally seen major updates in August, September, or October.
Past Android Release Timelines
Historically, Google has maintained a fairly predictable pattern for Android releases. For example:
- Android 15 was released earlier this month (October 2023).
- Android 14 launched in early October 2022.
- Android 13 arrived in August 2022.
To find an Android release outside of Q3 or Q4, you have to go back to 2012’s Android 4.1 Jelly Bean. This consistent yearly cycle has given Google time to plan, implement, and test new features and APIs. Any unfinished changes are typically pushed to the next release.
Improved Development Process Speeds Up Releases
Over the years, Google has refined its development process, making it easier to create, test, and distribute new Android versions. However, one thing remained constant: the way developers dealt with AOSP (Android Open Source Project) branches.
Earlier this year, Google transitioned to a trunk-based development model under its “trunk stable” project. This new approach allows developers to work on a single unified branch, using flagging to determine which features and APIs are enabled for each release. This change has already allowed Google to release updates faster, and it seems to be a major reason why Android 16 could launch sooner than expected.
Clues from the Android 15 Compatibility Definition Document
While reviewing the Android 15 Compatibility Definition Document (CDD), references to “25Q2” were noted, hinting that the next major release could come in the second quarter of 2025. Traditionally, the next Android version would be expected in 25Q3, but these references suggest a shift in the timeline.
This naming convention follows the pattern Google has been using internally since the release of Android 14 QPR2 (Quarterly Platform Release 2), which was known as 24Q1 internally. Following this logic:
- Android 15 is referred to as 24Q3.
- Android 15 QPR1 is 24Q4.
The references to 25Q2 and comments from Google engineers in AOSP patches further support the idea that Android 16 could arrive as early as Q2 2025.
Key Evidence Suggesting an Earlier Release for Android 16
Several pieces of evidence from AOSP patches bolster the claim of an earlier Android release:
- A patch adding a Linux kernel version requirement mentions it will be applied in “25Q2/Android W,” referring to Android 16.
- Another patch related to Bluetooth stack changes noted that API changes would only be allowed in 25Q2, as API modifications are typically reserved for major releases.
- Multiple Google engineers’ comments in AOSP patches confirm that new APIs and system behavior changes are being deferred until the 25Q2 window, implying that Android 16, not Android 15 QPR3, is scheduled for this period.
What Does 25Q2 Mean for Android 16?
If 25Q2 indeed refers to Android 16, this would mean Google plans to release it between April and June 2025, most likely in June. This would be earlier than the usual Q3 or Q4 timeline and could align with Google’s annual I/O developer conference. An earlier release would also ensure that next year’s Pixel phones don’t launch with an outdated version of Android, as was the case when the Google Pixel 9 series shipped with Android 14 instead of Android 15.
Google seems to be speeding up its Android release cycle thanks to its new development model. If the references to 25Q2 are accurate, Android 16 could be released as early as Q2 2025. This move would allow Google to roll out new features and APIs more quickly, possibly positioning Android 16 to debut at Google I/O 2025. This shift would not only benefit developers but also ensure that future Pixel phones come equipped with the latest Android version.